A Cold Peace: A Ceasefire Without Demobilization
It has been seven months since the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced a unilateral ceasefire, and over three months since it held a symbolic ceremony to initiate the disarmament process. With peace negotiations and implementation efforts now entering deeper phases of discussion, September marked the first month since the last peace process in 2015 without any bombardments or attacks by the Turkish Armed Forces in Iraqi Kurdistan—continuing the sharp downward trend observed in July and August, which saw a 97% reduction in attacks. Despite this progress, and although bombardments and attacks have significantly decreased, military mobilization by both sides has continued to increase.
Between July 1 (marked by the symbolic disarmament ceremony on July 11th) and September 30, at least 34 bombardments and attacks were documented in Iraqi Kurdistan by the Turkish Armed Forces—reflecting a continuation of the sharp reduction that began in July, with a 97% decrease that culminated in a complete cessation of attacks in September. These incidents included 32 artillery shellings, one drone strike, and one helicopter attack. Notably, no attacks or bombardments were recorded in September, compared to 16 in August and 18 in July. Additionally, 97% of the attacks were concentrated in the Amedi district, with the lone drone strike recorded in the Penjwen district. By comparison, from March 1 to June 30, 1390 bombardments and attacks were recorded, with a sharp increase each month until July. These included 1157 artillery shellings, 190 airstrikes, 40 helicopter attacks, two incidents of small arms fire, and one incident of explosive ordnance.
Despite the complete cessation of attacks in September, both actors have continued to mobilize and expand their military presence in the area. This ongoing militarization has led to persistent restrictions on civilian movement—with some areas still experiencing complete obstruction—as well as continued displacement. For instance, between August 22 and 23, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) informed residents of seven villages in the Nhele area of Amedi that they were permitted to return to their farmland and vineyards. Nevertheless, on August 23, residents of Guharze who attempted to access their land were detained by Turkish military personnel. They were released approximately one hour later but were instructed to vacate the area. That same day, residents of Balava, Barche, and four other villages were likewise denied access to their agricultural land. Furthermore, between August 20 and 21, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced that displaced residents from 15 villages in the Bari Gare area—who had been forcibly displaced for nearly 14 months—would be allowed to return to their villages between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. for farming purposes. On August 21, returnees reported that more than 50 civilian homes in Mizhe, Kafna Mizhe, Spindare, Girgashe, and Derashe had been completely destroyed as a result of Turkish aerial bombardments. In addition to the destruction of residential properties, educational facilities, a hospital, and several mosques were also reported to have been either destroyed or severely damaged.
Turkey, in particular, has not withdrawn its forces but instead expanded its military presence. For example, it has reinforced its bases on Matina Mountain and begun constructing new roads to connect its extensive network of bases in the Zap and Avashin areas of Amedi. Additionally, on September 14, Turkey completed the construction of a new military road from its base in Kashan village, located in the Batifia district. This marks a significant development, as roads are now being extended directly from military bases into inhabited Kurdish villages—something also observed earlier in September in Sargale village, in the Amedi district. Furthermore, between September 15 and October 1, Turkish forces began a campaign of deforestation and the transportation of cut trees from villages under their control in the Zap area, exporting the timber back to Turkey using domestic trucks. Similarly, the PKK and its affiliated groups have focused on strengthening their military capabilities by expanding tunnel networks at their bases in the Qandil, Gara, and Asos mountain regions, while also retaining their weapons and not engaging in any disarmament.
Overall, the peace process has led to a cessation of bombardments and attacks; however, the increasing military presence by both actors makes the situation appear fragile. Civilian impacts and displacement persist as a result of ongoing militarization.
Community Peacemaker Teams urges both Turkey and the PKK to fully engage in the peace process and to suspend any further mobilization and expansion of their military presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. CPT also calls on both the Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to contribute to the peace process and ensure that civilians can return to their villages and farmlands without fear of being targeted.